Embraer foresees a shift in global aviation with 11,000 new regional aircraft by 2043

  • North America, Europe/CIS, and Asia Pacific/China are expected to be the leading recipients of the 11,000 new aircraft.
  • Factors influencing demand include regional connectivity, fleet deployment, and the focus on sustainability in aviation.
  • The up-to-150 seat category aircraft would offer efficient network expansion, especially to low-demand markets and improved regional connectivity.

SAO PAULO — Embraer's 2023 market outlook offers a fresh perspective on the aviation landscape, predicting a surge in the need for up-to-150 seat aircraft. Over the next two decades, a whopping 11,000 new planes in this category will be required, with demand influenced by regional variations.

In the Asia Pacific/China region, despite its vast populace, there exists a notable gap in air service connectivity, especially when juxtaposed with the U.S. By introducing a greater number of up-to-150 seat aircraft, carriers can pivot from the current point-to-point paradigm towards offering a greater number of connecting flights. Such a move is primed to enhance services to smaller cities, leveraging aircraft designs that have historically catered efficiently to markets with reduced demand.

Europe and its CIS partners predominantly employ narrowbodies. As sustainability becomes a pivotal agenda, carriers are leaning towards Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). Yet, this transition, at least in the interim, could elevate ticket prices, possibly compelling some operators to scale down. Newer up-to-150 seat aircraft, aligning with impending noise and emission mandates, are poised to serve this low-carbon directive well.

Meanwhile, North America grapples with a pilot deficit, leading to the grounding of 50-seat jets. As this challenge is addressed and more pilots join the fray, the region will likely lean more towards the up-to-150 seat aircraft segment, capitalizing on their operational cost efficiencies.

Latin America's aviation scene is marked by an older fleet of large narrowbodies, predominantly serving point-to-point routes. However, a shift has been evident since 2020, with a lean towards smaller planes, suggesting a region ripe for an influx of up-to-150 seat aircraft.

Contrastingly, the Middle East, witnessing a dip in long-haul flights, is ripe for intensifying its intra-regional connectivity. Given that a significant chunk of 2022's domestic and regional routes catered to sub-150 passenger loads, the case for up-to-150 seat planes strengthens.

Africa's aviation canvas is vast yet underutilized. With relatively sparse daily flights and a notedly low load average, smaller, up-to-150 seat planes stand as an optimal solution. However, the continent's potential remains somewhat hampered by prevailing regulatory constraints.

Collectively, these insights by Embraer paint an evolving narrative in global aviation, heralding a significant tilt towards smaller, more efficient aircraft in the coming two decades.