DUBLIN, IRELAND — Irish lessor Avolon forecasts $4 Trillion capital requirement for global aviation over two decades.
The aviation sector worldwide will require $4 trillion in capital over the forthcoming 20 years to finance new commercial deliveries and remodel the global fleet, according to Avolon, a leasing firm, on Tuesday.
Avolon, the world's third-largest aircraft lessor, anticipates airlines and leasing companies will receive delivery of 44,300 commercial passenger aircraft by 2042. Roughly half of these deliveries will be for fleet replacement, and the other half will cater to growth, as per the newly released forecast.
The Dublin-based firm estimates that the global commercial passenger aircraft fleet will nearly double, reaching 46,880 aircraft by 2042.
The report emerges ahead of the Paris Airshow taking place from June 19 to 25. Aerospace companies attending the event will present their strategies to meet the industry-wide net zero emissions goal by 2050 while simultaneously addressing current supply chain issues.
To achieve this environmental objective, the industry must separate its environmental impact from the robust travel demand projected to grow at 3.5% compared to GDP growth of 2.5%, Avolon highlighted.
However, environmental critics argue the rapid growth of commercial aviation contradicts its environmental goals.
Avolon maintains the primary focus should be on boosting the supply of Sustainable Aviation Fuels, stating that a growing industry will pull in the necessary capital to facilitate aviation's transition towards sustainability.
The firm projects growth will be chiefly driven by narrow-body jets, such as Airbus' A320neo and Boeing's 737 MAX.
The European manufacturer Airbus is predicted to uphold its lead in the narrow-body market with its current fleet share of 53% anticipated to rise to 58% by 2042. Boeing, on the other hand, is expected to maintain its dominance in the wide-body market with a 59% share.
Avolon also forecasts a revival for smaller turboprop planes. The present age of such aircraft suggests more turboprops will be delivered in the upcoming years than regional jets, indicating a reversal of the trend seen over the past quarter-century, potentially attracting new players with innovative designs.
While China is developing a new turboprop, Brazilian manufacturer Embraer has paused plans for its own. The market is currently led by Franco-Italian planemaker ATR.
