PARIS, FRANCE —Demand for up-to-150 seat aircraft to surge: Embraer's 20-year market outlook spotlights Sustainability and surging travel demand.
In a press conference held at the prestigious Paris Air Show, Embraer, the Brazilian aerospace conglomerate, presented its ambitious 20-year commercial aircraft delivery strategy, offering key insights into global trends and influences impacting the market.
The prospectus detailed the company's forecast for the market demand for new jets and turboprops with a seating capacity of up to 150, up until the year 2042. It encapsulated a comprehensive analysis spanning six global regions, identifying different dynamics shaping the industry.
Despite the challenging circumstances resulting from a lingering pandemic recovery, geopolitical shifts, and evolving industry dynamics, Embraer forecasts global revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) will regain their pre-COVID levels by 2024. Thereafter, the company predicts an annual growth rate of 3.2% until 2042.
Arjan Meijer, Embraer Commercial Aviation's President and CEO, underscored the significance of the up-to-150 seat aircraft segment in preserving airline network connectivity in his opening note. Meijer also acknowledged the effect of rising remote work trends and increasing environmental considerations on future travel patterns and aircraft demand.
The study spotlighted three major trends anticipated to redefine travel and aircraft demand in the future:
Economic Decentralization: The regionalization of businesses and supply chains will recalibrate the mobility of goods and people.
Societal Shifts: The proliferation of remote work will stimulate the need for air service in newly emerging communities.
Market Implications of Sustainability: The push for sustainability will influence demand, with new fuels and technologies likely escalating the cost of air travel over time.
Furthermore, Embraer highlighted the growing need for fleet flexibility in order to adapt to unpredictable and fluctuating demand, with narrow-body complementation and all-cargo crossover narrow-body jets gaining popularity.
Looking at the numbers, Embraer projects a global demand for 11,000 new aircraft in the up-to-150 seat category, comprised of 8,790 jets and 2,210 turboprops. The total market value of these aircraft is estimated at a staggering $650 billion.
Regarding regional annual RPK growth rates, Asia Pacific, including China, leads with 4.4%, followed by Latin America at 4.1%, Africa at 3.7%, the Middle East at 3.2%, North America at 2.2%, and Europe/CIS at 2.0%.
By the close of 2042, the RPK share is expected to be dominated by Asia Pacific with 42%, while Europe and North America combined will hold 38%.
When it comes to regional jet deliveries, North America leads the pack with 30.6%, trailed by Europe/CIS with 27.2%, and Asia Pacific with 25.8%. Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa are anticipated to account for 8.9%, 3.9%, and 3.6% respectively.
For turboprop deliveries, Asia Pacific again takes the lion's share with 41%, followed by Europe/CIS at 20.2%, and North America at 18.5%. Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East are expected to make up 9.5%, 8.1%, and 2.7% respectively.
