BEIJING, CHINAChina's state-owned aircraft manufacturer COMAC predicts that the fleet size of Chinese airlines will reach 9,957 by 2040, accounting for 22 percent of the global passenger aircraft fleet, making China the world's largest single aviation market.

The report, which was released by the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) on Tuesday, said that China will take delivery of 9,084 passenger planes at or above the 50-seat class in the next two decades by 2040, valued at approximately $1.4 trillion.

This will include 953 turbofan airliners above the 50-seat class, 6,295 single-aisle jet airliners above the 120-seat class, and 1,836 dual-aisle jet airliners above the 250-seat class.

The report was delivered, coinciding with the Zhuhai airshow held in South China's Guangdong Province.

Although the pandemic has had a huge impact on the global civil aviation industry, over the long term, suppressed passenger demand across the global aviation market will gradually recover, the report noted.

It predicts that the global aviation market will return to its pre-pandemic state during 2023, with the global passenger turnover (RPKs) growing at an annual rate of 3.9 percent in the next 20 years, reaching 19.1 trillion passenger kilometers by 2040.

Embraer also released its market outlook at the airshow, predicting that by 2040, the Chinese market will require 1,445 new airplanes under the 150-seat class. Of the new aircraft delivered, 77 percent will be used to meet market growth, and 23 percent will be used to replace older models.

The report said that China's domestic fleet accounted for 71.6 percent of the total fleet in the 150-210 seat class, while the fleet under 150 seats only accounted for 12.8 percent of the total, "showing there is big room for optimization."

On September 23, Boeing also released a report, forecasting that China's airlines will require 8,700 new airplanes by 2040, valued at $1.47 trillion, to meet expanding commercial air travel demand.
Via Global Times